Explainer: What are prediction markets? – Canadian Affairs Explainer: What are prediction markets? – Canadian Affairs

Online prediction markets offer a platform on which users can place binary bets on the outcomes of future events, with prices reflecting how probable those outcomes are. Both dominant prediction market platforms and smaller betting sites have demonstrated significant user uptake in 2025.

In the absence of enabling legislation explicitly permitting the operation of prediction markets in Canada, each province relies on its own securities regulators to address oversight. With the Canadian Securities Administrators’ (CSA) ban of binary options in a 2017 ruling, Ontario’s securities regulator determined that bets placed on a prediction market platform violated the CSA order and were deemed illegal.

In a recent interview with Canadian Affairs, Matthew Burgoyne, Chair of the Digital Assets and Blockchain practice said, “[t]hese prediction markets like Polymarket really do seem to fit that definition of a binary option, because there’s typically a short time period, and there’s a binary outcome.”

Excluding Ontario, securities regulators in other provinces have yet to address if the CSA’s 2017 ruling applies to prediction markets, creating uncertainty about the rules governing these platforms. “It’s a fractured system in that each province and territory has its own securities act and securities regulator,” said Matthew. “We don’t have an equivalent to the [Commodity Futures Trading Commission].” 

Federal politicians have yet to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for Canadians in this evolving area.  

Read the full article by Sam Forster, “Explainer: What are prediction markets?” on the Canadian Affairs website.