Stephen Poloz on economic impacts and preparing for the future

What Canadian businesses need to know

Navigating through the uncertainty of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and evolving economic impacts is a strategic imperative that will continue to emerge, as Canadian enterprises and industries are engaged in planning for the future at a time when that future is still very uncertain. Businesses will need to capitalize on new opportunities for growth and engage in international trade and development prospects, while addressing and adapting to current issues and the challenges that remain ahead.

To help clients navigate through the “unknowable,” including emerging economic impacts, Osler Special Advisor Stephen Poloz provides significant expertise and strategic guidance regarding the financial system, trade, and economic policy, both domestically and on a global scale.

Below are resources featuring Stephen’s strategic insights on a range of economic considerations affecting the evolving business landscape. 

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz

Special Advisor
spoloz@osler.com
tel: 613.787.1013

Stephen Poloz is a widely recognized economist with nearly 40 years of experience in financial markets, forecasting and economic policy, including 35 years in the public sector. Prior to joining Osler, Stephen was the ninth Governor of the Bank of Canada, Canada’s central bank. He provides expert insight to help organizations adapt their business strategies to meet the evolving challenges and opportunities presented by new and dynamic market realities. Clients benefit from his extensive experience in influencing global economic policy and providing key advocacy for Canadian positions and businesses, as well as his singular ability to translate complex and dynamic economic and market information into the business context. Learn more about Stephen

Resources

Stephen Poloz

Q1 2024 economic update with Stephen Poloz

Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP – March 7, 2024

As interest rates remain elevated in the Bank of Canada’s fight against inflation, Stephen looks at the Canadian investment climate, rising business insolvencies and the expected impacts of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, electrification and other long-term investments.

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz on the path to a soft landing

BNN Bloomberg – December 12, 2023

In an interview on BNN Bloomberg, Stephen discusses progress on inflation, the likelihood of a recession, business spending and how immigration is crucial for economic growth.

Stephen Poloz

Q4 2023 economic update with Stephen Poloz

Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP – November 29, 2023

With Canadian businesses and households looking forward to interest rate cuts, Stephen discusses the lag between tightening cycles and their effects, the roles of high debt and supply shocks in falling inflation, domestic and foreign investment and more.

Stephen Poloz

Opinion: Pensions in the next age of uncertainty: Why this economy needs defined-benefit plans

The Globe and Mail – November 6, 2023

To help control for the volatility of economic factors amid the other uncertainties of planning for retirement, Stephen Poloz argues there will be “a renaissance of defined benefit, or DB, pension plans.”

Stephen Poloz

2023 Economic Outlook – Calgary set to navigate economic headwinds

Calgary Economic Development - Nov 1, 2023

Speaking to the Calgary business community, Stephen Poloz spoke about how economic forces will affect Canadian business and how it will impact Calgary and Alberta.

Stephen Poloz

Pensions in the next age of uncertainty

HOOPP – Oct 31, 2023

Published by the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan (HOOPP) Stephen Poloz’s paper describes the critical role that pension plans can play in helping to secure Canada’s economic growth by managing some of the household burden of uncertain macroeconomic times.

Stephen Poloz

Q3 2023 economic update with Stephen Poloz

Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP – September 19, 2023

As the Bank of Canada continues to work toward a soft landing, Stephen explores the effects of higher interest rates on various sectors of the economy, inflationary pressures that central banks can’t control and the economic potential of AI technologies.

Stephen Poloz

Q2 2023 economic update with Stephen Poloz

Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP – June 27, 2023

Amid higher interest rates and an economy showing few signs of cooling, Stephen discusses the effects of aging demographics and immigration on wages and housing, continued pressure on the Bank of Canada and more in this quarterly webinar.

Stephen Poloz

How to increase government revenues without raising taxes

The Hub – May 11, 2023

An excerpt from Stephen Poloz’s Donner Prize-shortlisted book, The Next Age of Uncertainty: How the World Can Adapt to a Riskier Future, outlines why focusing on economic growth instead of higher taxes can give governments better fiscal flexibility.

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz on the future of interest rates and inflation expectations

BNN Bloomberg Morning Markets – April 12, 2023

In this interview, Stephen describes why he believes interest rates will come down during the second half of this year, as well as the impact consumer expectations are having on inflation.

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz on uncertainty and what’s behind declining inflation

The Globe and Mail – March 21, 2023

In the Globe and Mail, Stephen looks at the effects of higher interest rates, uncertainty around the global financial system, and the supply- and demand-side factors affecting Canada’s declining inflation rate.

Stephen Poloz

Q1 2023 economic update with Stephen Poloz

Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP – March 1, 2023

With some signs of progress in the fight against inflation, Stephen looks at the likelihood of a “soft landing” for the Canadian and other western economies, the future normalization of interest rates, how Canada can promote foreign direct investment and more.

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz on a ‘soft landing’ and unique factors behind inflation

The Globe and Mail – February 6, 2023

Amid hopeful signs, Stephen discusses the possibility that the Canadian economy avoids a recession, the supply-side shocks driving current inflation levels, and why it’s difficult for economic models to forecast.

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz on how a potential recession would compare to previous downturns

Financial Post – December 25, 2022

Stephen looks toward the relatively “easy ride” of a possible recession in 2023, the importance of housing and immigration targets, international competition for business investment, the role Canada’s oil and gas sector can play in the energy transition and more in a year-end interview with the Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn.

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz on labour shortages, immigration and the Canadian dollar

Financial Post – November 23, 2022

In the Financial Post, Stephen explains how changes to the immigration process could help with Canada’s labour shortage and how clarity around net-zero climate policies can support the energy industry and combat inflation.

Stephen Poloz

Q4 2022 economic update with Stephen Poloz

Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP – November 15, 2022

As 2022 winds down, Stephen examines the federal government’s recent fiscal update, the supply side factors affecting inflation, the likelihood of a recession and how the energy transition can benefit the economy and the planet at the same time.

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz on Canadian dollar, business investment

The Globe and Mail – November 8, 2022

In this article, Stephen writes about how weakness in the Canadian dollar is associated with continuing weakness in business investment.

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz on Canadian real estate, inflation

Better Dwelling – October 31, 2022

In this video interview, Stephen discusses the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy and its impact on the housing market, along with the interrelationship between inflation and interest rates.

Stephen Poloz

Fall 2022 economic update with Stephen Poloz

Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP – September 20, 2022

As interest rates continue to rise, Stephen discusses the housing market and commodity prices, risks to Canada’s resource-based economy, the possibility of a recession and changes in the labour market.

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz on his early life influences

PenderFund – August 22, 2022

In Part 2 of his interview, Stephen talks about how his early life shaped his career, the outlook for inflation and the digitization of money.

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz on future economic volatility

PenderFund – August 3, 2022

In Part 1 of his interview, Stephen discusses future economic volatility and the five tectonic forces driving it.

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz on leadership in the age of uncertainty

The Humphrey Group – August 2, 2022

Stephen explores how leaders should think differently as tectonic forces reshape the world and our economy, balancing short-term corporate demands with long-term considerations, empowering teams to manage risk and much more on The Inspire Podcast.

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz on the inevitable shocks that will soon affect households and businesses

La Presse – August 1, 2022

In an interview with La Presse, Stephen talks about household behaviour, rising interest rates, price and wage controls and how to deal with the economic shocks he anticipates (in French only).

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz on inflation, gas prices and the Bank of Canada

CBC News – June 22, 2022

Appearing on CBC’s Power & Politics, Stephen addresses the long-term inflation outlook, interest rates, the role of central banks and how higher prices for oil and gas can impact the rest of the economy.

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz on rising interest rates, central banks and gold

Kitco News – May 31, 2022

In an interview on Kitco News, Stephen talks about stagflation, the anticipated impact of rising interest rates on Canada’s housing markets, central bank independence and the possibility of a recession.

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz on stagflation

The Globe and Mail – May 24, 2022

In a C.D. Howe Institute podcast reported on by The Globe and Mail, Stephen discusses how Canada is heading into a period of slowing growth and high inflation, which he does not necessarily think will last long. He also comments on how the Bank of Canada will need to pay close attention to incoming economic signals to ensure the economy does not slip into a recession.

Stephen Poloz

Spring 2022 economic update with Stephen Poloz

Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP – May 10, 2022

Stephen discusses the effects of rising interest rates, pressures affecting commodity prices and capital markets, geopolitical and economic uncertainty and more in this quarterly update.

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz on inflation and central bank projections

Financial Post – April 26, 2022

In conversation with Larysa Harapyn, Stephen talks about job vacancies, the uncertainty-related global economic slowdown and what factors need to go right to avoid a recession and keep inflation on target.

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz on the federal budget, inflationary pressures and labour shortages

Financial Post – April 14, 2022

Stephen explains how the federal budget exceeded many expectations, what policymakers can do to address labour shortages and inflationary pressures, quantitative tightening and encouraging investment in Canada.

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz on interest rate hikes, economic capacity and inflation

CBC – April 13, 2022

On CBC’s Power & Politics, Stephen discusses the normalization of interest rates, the recent federal budget and the various causes of — and solutions to — inflation.

Stephen Poloz

Stephen Poloz on the cost of living and the federal budget

CBC – April 7, 2022

In an interview with Matt Galloway on The Current, Stephen explains what’s behind the rising cost of living, what governments can and can’t do to address it, and the importance of rebuilding fiscal buffers.

Stephen Poloz discusses optimism about recovery

Stephen Poloz on fiscal policy, housing and polarization

TVO – February 28, 2022

Appearing on The Agenda with Steve Paikin, Stephen explains the difficulties of economic forecasting, the role of central banks, Canada’s housing market and the personal and political effects of larger forces.

Stephen Poloz discusses optimism about recovery

Stephen Poloz on his new book, uncertainty and innovative solutions

Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP – February 23, 2022

To mark the release of his new book, The Next Age of Uncertainty: How the World Can Adapt to a Riskier Future, Stephen discusses converging social and economic pressures in a special webinar event moderated by John Stackhouse.

Stephen Poloz on interest rates and K-shaped recovery

Stephen Poloz on rising volatility, debt and risk management

Financial Post – February 23, 2022

Appearing on the Down to Business podcast, Stephen explains the forces interacting to create new crises, why existing policy tools may not be enough to handle the coming challenges, drags on fiscal capacity, the energy transition and other topics.

Stephen Poloz discusses optimism about recovery

Stephen Poloz on ‘tectonic forces’ reshaping the economy

Financial Post – February 21, 2022

In his new book, Stephen considers the five massive social and economic trends converging over the next decade, how economists and policymakers must adapt their thinking, and the role corporate ESG can play in tackling inequality and climate change.

Stephen Poloz discusses optimism about recovery

Stephen Poloz on his new book, the inflation debate and economic uncertainty

Maclean’s – February 7, 2022

In an interview with Maclean’s, Stephen discusses inflation and how a near-death experience changed his outlook on life. Read the full article

Stephen Poloz discusses optimism about recovery

Winter 2022 economic update with Stephen Poloz

Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP – February 15, 2022

Stephen reviews global supply chain constraints, shifts in consumer focus from goods to service industries as pandemic restrictions lift, anticipated normalization of interest rates, the relationship between oil prices and the Canadian dollar, the demographic and other factors affecting the labour market and other timely topics.

Stephen Poloz discusses optimism about recovery

Stephen Poloz on inflation, supply side economics

The Globe and Mail – December 27, 2021

In a year-end interview with The Globe and Mail, Stephen discusses the impact demographics is having on the economy, issues around inflation, and risks relating to supply and demand.
Access the full interview

Stephen Poloz on economic health

Stephen Poloz on Canada’s fiscal plan, interest rates and cost of living

Global News – December 12, 2021

In an interview on Global News’ The West Block, Stephen discusses Canada’s fiscal plan, the importance of maneuverability, measures that could enhance growth, inflation, fluctuating costs of living and more.

Stephen Poloz on economic health

Stephen Poloz on Canada’s inflation rate

CTV – November 28, 2021

During an interview on CTV's Question Period, Osler Special Advisor Stephen Poloz shared his view that government spending and stimulus are not to blame for increased inflation.

Stephen Poloz on economic health

Fall 2021 economic update with Stephen Poloz

Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP – November 4, 2021

Stephen discusses downstream effects of shifting dynamics in labour markets, the role of worldwide vaccine distribution in economic recovery and supply chain issues, financial and technological paths to environmental progress and more.

Stephen Poloz on economic health

Stephen Poloz on inflation versus prices and K-shaped recovery

BNN Bloomberg – November 4, 2021

Stephen shares his views on transitory inflation versus rising prices and adjusting wages, potential impacts of the energy transition and more in an interview with BNN Bloomberg.

Stephen Poloz on economic health

Stephen Poloz on supply chain issues, scenario planning and economic recovery

Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP – October 8, 2021

Stephen examines disruptions to the global supply chain, the benefits of scenario planning, factors affecting economic recovery around the world and more in a webinar with Osler partners Andraya Frith and Wendy Gross.

Stephen Poloz on economic health

Stephen Poloz on economic health, monetary policy and vulnerabilities

BNN Bloomberg – September 14, 2021

Stephen shares his views on the overall health of the Canadian economy, housing affordability, discussions around inflation and rising interest rates, the Canadian dollar and more in an interview with BNN Bloomberg.

Stephen Poloz discusses economic recovery

Stephen Poloz on The Monthly

Government Analytics – August 5, 2021

Stephen discusses workforce trends, addressing inequality, interest rates, uncertainty around Canada’s economic future and more with Senator Pamela Wallin in a webinar organized by Government Analytics.

Stephen Poloz discusses economic recovery

Summer 2021 economic update with Stephen Poloz

Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP – July 27, 2021

Stephen shares his thoughts on Canada’s post-pandemic economic recovery, inflation and more.

Stephen Poloz discusses economic recovery

Stephen Poloz on inflation, immigration, and commodities

Financial Post – May 13, 2021

Stephen discusses inflation, higher commodity prices, and Canada’s need to grow through immigration, with Larysa Harapyn.

Stephen Poloz discusses economic recovery

2021 economic update with Stephen Poloz

Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP – April 28, 2021

Stephen shares his views on the budget, the economy and what to expect for the remainder of 2021.

Stephen Poloz discusses economic recovery

Stephen Poloz on building a resilient post-pandemic Canadian economy

True North Free Trade Forum – March 30, 2021

Stephen shares his thoughts on how governments can support economic growth in a post-pandemic world in keynote remarks delivered at the True North Free Trade Forum.

Stephen Poloz discusses economic recovery

Stephen Poloz on rising interest rates as a symptom of an economy that is back on track

BNN Bloomberg – March 18, 2021

Stephen discusses the risk of inflation ahead, Canada's economy and his latest view on what to expect in terms of recovery.

Stephen Poloz discusses economic recovery

Stephen Poloz discusses outlook for Canadian economy as pandemic continues

BNN Bloomberg – January 15, 2021

Stephen shares his outlook for the economy, remaining optimistic for recovery and noting Canada must improve its competitiveness in the wake of the situation.

Stephen Poloz discusses economic recovery

Fireside chat with Stephen Poloz on Canada's economic outlook

The Ivey Academy – January 14, 2021

Stephen and Maclean's journalist Paul Wells discuss Canada's outlook in the second year of global disruption in this virtual fireside chat.

Stephen Poloz discusses economic recovery

Understanding the K-shaped economic recovery

Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP – December 8, 2020

Stephen provides insight into the forces acting on the economy and Canada’s K-shaped recovery in his article for Osler’s Legal Year in Review.

Early post-pandemic considerations for financial markets with Stephen Poloz

Early post-pandemic considerations for financial markets with Stephen Poloz

PMAC National Conference – November 17, 2020

Stephen discusses the challenges and opportunities ahead and has a Q&A with Lesley Marks, CIO and Head of Investment Management, BMO Private Wealth Canada.

Stephen Poloz discusses economic recovery

Stephen Poloz discusses economic recovery and growth

The Globe and Mail – November 17, 2020

Stephen talks about economic recovery, including the muted K-shaped recovery currently underway and how governments can reduce impediments to growth.

Stephen Poloz on economic recovery

Newsmaker virtual fireside chat with Stephen Poloz

Turnaround Management Association Toronto – November 12, 2020

Stephen joins Deland Kamanga, Head Global Markets, BMO Capital Markets, to share his insights on the economic crisis, including the financial stress in the Canadian energy sector.

Stephen Poloz on interest rates and K-shaped recovery

Stephen Poloz on interest rates, our oil industry and the K-shaped recovery

Episode 77 of “Down to Business” podcast, Financial Post – November 11, 2020

Stephen discusses effects of the U.S. presidential election and Canada’s economic recovery in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic with podcast host Gabriel Friedman.

Stephen Poloz MPAC Virtual Leader Chat

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and navigating our way forward

Municipal Property Assessment Corporation – October 29, 2020

Stephen sat down with Nicole McNeill, President and CAO of MPAC, to share his views as part of a virtual leader chat.

Rebuild Canada Growth Summit with Stephen Poloz

Rebuild Canada Growth Summit with Stephen Poloz

Public Policy Forum (PPF) – October 19, 2020

Stephen joins Brian Bohunicky, Vice-President of Policy, PPF, for a virtual fireside chat to discuss Canada’s economic outlook, including considerations regarding government debt and navigating uncertainty.

Stephen Poloz talks to BNN’s Amanda Lang

Former Bank of Canada Governor Poloz on stimulus, easing

Virtual Canadian Fixed Income Conference, Bloomberg – October 13, 2020

Stephen speaks with BNN’s Amanda Lang about his thoughts on stimulus, easing and what’s around the corner in 2021.

Stephen Poloz on infrastructure spending

Will infrastructure spending be part of Canada’s economic recovery plan?

Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP – September 23, 2020

Stephen Poloz and Osler partners Chris Bennett and Richard Wong discuss trends in infrastructure spending, the pipeline of projects being put forward, and other topics.

Stephen Poloz on economic recovery

Stephen Poloz on post-pandemic economic recovery and navigating uncertainty

Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP – September 10, 2020

Stephen shares his views on navigating through uncertainty and touches on several timely topics, including the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on globalization and the Canadian economy.

 

As the former Governor of the Bank of Canada, Stephen is subject to certain continuing restrictions that apply to his presentations and discussions. His remarks are his own personal views and do not represent the views of the Bank of Canada, his former office, the Government of Canada or any of its departments. His presentations have been based on data and information that are publicly available.