Someone made big money betting on Maduro. What are prediction markets, and is it time they had tighter rules? – CBC News Someone made big money betting on Maduro. What are prediction markets, and is it time they had tighter rules? – CBC News

Prediction markets, in which users place binary wagers on almost any kind of event, have become an increasingly popular way to make money. While akin to gambling, prediction platforms are treated like a financial product when it comes to regulation. Prediction markets have been recently garnering attention as large sums of money have been made betting on world events, including the removal of President Nicolás Maduro following the U.S. military operation in Venezuela. An anonymous user bet over US$30,000 on Maduro being ousted by the end of January, ultimately resulting in a US$400,000 payout.

Instances of particularly large gains raise concerns about the possibility that inside information was used in making the prediction. With payments often made using cryptocurrency and users frequently anonymous, regulating these matters is complex. In Canada, buying and selling binary options has been banned since 2017. Prediction market services that fall outside the scope of that ban might be considered “securities, derivatives or both” according to a Canadian Securities Administrators spokesperson and would have to follow existing rules for the relevant product.

Speaking with CBC News, Matthew Burgoyne, Chair of Osler’s Digital Assets and Blockchain practice, said “[r]ight now, it’s a grey area for sure . . . [w]e just haven’t seen a lot of enforcement action in Canada” aside from an Ontario ban and fine of Polymarket in 2025. The Canada-wide binary options rule also hasn’t seemed to stop Polymarket from being available to Canadians, Matthew says. While Ontario is listed as a banned region on Polymarket, it does not mention any other parts of Canada, and virtual private networks can be used to get around such restrictions.

“It’s almost impossible, practically speaking, for any securities regulator to absolutely prohibit a platform,” Matthew said. He believes further regulations specific to prediction markets are needed to protect users globally.

Read the full article published on January 10, 2026, by Abby Hughes on the CBC News website.