People Mentioned
Special Advisor, Ottawa
Canada’s chances of slipping into a recession have increased amid growing global economic pressures, says Osler Special Advisor Stephen Poloz, in an interview with Vassy Kapelos during CTV Question Period.
Stephen says Canada’s growth is only about 1% and the economy is still “digesting” U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff regime. “It’s not about somehow avoiding all that,” he says. “Then on top of that, we’ve got this oil shock.”
“Can we do some offsets? Like, for example, the government changes the tax structure on gasoline. That’s a mitigant, a short-term kind of offset,” he added. “But really, for the Trump tariffs, what we need is to find replacements, as opposed to offsets.”
Stephen pointed to expanding the conventional energy sector and boosting the homegrown defence industry as examples of potentially effective offsets.
“Canada may get a little bit luckier than others, because we’re a big producer and net exporter of oil,” says Stephen. “That doesn’t mean we can just suddenly walk away and not have a recession with everybody else, but it means it’s mitigated by the revenue flows from the oil.
“But within Canada, we would be a case with our head in the oven and our feet in the freezer, (with) very big divergences across sectors, households versus companies, regions, etc.”
Watch the full interview with host Vassy Kapelos aired on April 19, 2026,
People Mentioned
Special Advisor, Ottawa
